If you were president, would it bother you if 2 million Americans died in the next few months from Covid-19? What about 1 million? What sort of financial hardships would you be willing to have the country endure to save many of those lives?
Because Austria reacted quickly and severely, the rate of new cases of Covid-19 has gone down in the past 24 hours. Italy seems to have reached its inflection point, when the rate of increase begins to slow. With any luck, Spain will reach its inflection point this week. To be clear, many more people will test positive and die as the curve flattens, but the point is that the rate of growth should continue to slow as long as the quarantine measures are still in place and working.
Today, President Trump said he’s thinking of rolling back social distancing measures before all the states have even enacted shelter-in-place orders. While public health measures are under state control, a shift of message from the White House could nonetheless encourage states to allow low-risk people back to the workplace. This suggests that Trump is comfortable with a certain number of deaths. Is he OK with .6 percent of the population dying? That would be roughly 2 million mostly elderly people, plus younger people who suffer from heart conditions, asthma, or autoimmune diseases. Do you think he’s fine with .3 percent dying?
If the nation’s low-risk (under 60) workers go back to the workplace, we’re likely to see a wartime draft situation. Millions would seek exemptions and the upper middle class would get their doctors to write notes to allow them to stay home. (Hell, their doctors help them get their dogs on planes!) Ironically, the uninsured, who don’t have access to doctors who can write them notes, would all be obliged to go back to the workplace. And despite the fact that the rate of death for the young who contract the coronavirus is low, some young people would inevitably die, and the blame would be placed squarely on the government. If you were president, how many deaths would you feel comfortable with?
